Letters and Fallacies of Logic

Agamedes is pleased to see a fine example of a new -- to Agamedes -- logical fallacy.

Do you need new -- lateral -- thinking for your own problems? email nick leth at gmail dot com. Need solutions? No worries. Now.

Under the headline of, "Why condemn Israel?" (Letters, The West, 27 May 10), Robert Raymen successfully uses, Reductio ad Hitlerum. Well done, Raymen!

Reductio ad Hitlerum: compare it to Hitler, to prove that a policy is right, or wrong...

"If the British had carried out an operation during World War II to assassinate Adolf Hitler, do you think the world would have condemned Britain for using forged passports...?" Let's assume that everyone would support assassination of Hitler... so that provides support for assassination of any leader of a group which opposes any government? Good grief!

World War II was a "world" war -- lots of countries were involved. Which country's passports should we forge? I suspect that the neutral Swiss would have objected if their passports were forged. Why? Because it effectively drags them into a war which they are attempting to avoid.

Similarly, Australia is not at war with Hamas. Neither is Britain. Neither Australia nor Britain want to be dragged, unwillingly, into a war between Israel and Hamas. In fact, I doubt if even Israel is involved in a formal, declared war with Hamas. Neither Australia nor Britain wants to be dragged into a murderous gang-style battle between two groups of terrorists fighting an undeclared war.

Australia is quite right in -- at the very least -- speaking sternly to Israel about its contemptuous action in forging Australian passports.

Even more faulty logic

"Two standards" is another letter on the same topic, from Stanley Keyser. Keyser bases his own illogic on false comparisons:

"The world smiled when Saddam Hussein was killed. Australians applauded when [the Bali bombers] were put to death. Why, then, is there so much criticism of Israel when it does exactly the same thing?" To Keyser, these three situations are exactly the same. Let's look at the differences...

Saddam Hussein was captured, went to prison, went on trial, found guilty on the basis of evidence of capital crimes. He was executed on the order of a judicial court. The Bali bombers were captured, went to prison, went on trial, found guilty on the basis of evidence of capital crimes. They were executed on the order of a judicial court. Mahmoud al-Mabhouh was... well... murdered.

Where was the trial? What was the evidence? Where was the judge? the jury?

Yes, it is possible that a court could have found that al-Mabhouh was guilty of capital crimes. There is no indication that a court trial was ever considered. Is the head of Mossad a legally appointed judge, jury and executioner? Is Mossad a legally appointed court? Was there evidence? a court of appeal? Not as far as we can tell.

Hussein and the Bali bombers went through due process. Al-Mabhouh was assassinated by a secretive Israeli terrorist organisation.

To use my own brand of dubious and emotion-charged logic: who will Mossad kill next? and will they even tell us why?

Under the spreading fallacy...

Lack of logic may well be infectious!

There, right next to Keyser's false comparison, Graham Waideman applies the same type of illogical comparison. This time, to education:

"Students who act violently ... are 'damaged'." Okay, no argument so far.

Waideman worked for two years in a program to support these damaged students. "Yet in my two years at the program I never witnessed nor was I made aware of any of these students using physical violence towards any staff member or volunteer helper." Well, derrr!

Pull students out of a classroom. Appoint specialist staff whose job is to cope with the damaged nature of these students. Focus every effort -- possibly one-on-one -- to managing the destructive behaviour of the students. (Were they also learning? Who cares.)

Now go back to the classroom:

Thirty students, three of whom are disruptive. One teacher, attempting to teach thirty students. Every interruption by a disruptive student is a backward step for the 27 students willing to learn.

All three "damaged" students are potentially violent. Does the teacher have time to provide one-on-one coping strategies for those three? No. Does the teacher keep one eye on the three? Probably -- and the other 27 suffer as a result. What happens when one of the three damaged students "breaks"? Violence? Possibly. Disruption to the education of the other 27? Definitely.

Waideman's comparison is ridiculous; the standard classroom is in no way the same as a specialist program. The conclusion is also wrong.

Waideman suggests that classes are under-funded, fine. That more money should be put into classrooms -- to cope with "damaged" students? Rubbish!

A school is for education. If a student is unwilling to learn or incapable of learning -- they should not be allowed to destroy education for other students.

Yes, provide resources to support the education of the "damaged" students. But support them outside the standard classroom. If there are 27 students -- damaged or otherwise -- who can cope with school, then let them learn. And put the violent trouble-makers in a padded program of their own.

Independent thinking & independent analysis of your problems by Agamedes Consulting. Support for your thought: email nick leth at gmail dot com

Shading the Truth on Taxation

For those who fell asleep during the "super tax" debate... Agamedes provides insight.

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First, there is business, and it is taxed. But there is a cost to running a business -- essential costs incurred in order to earn income. So business is taxed on profit: income less expenses.

There are expenses and there are tax-deductible expenses. Every business attempts to define all of its expenses as being "tax-deductible". Tax-deductible expenses up, so taxable income is down, so tax paid is less. Here's a simple example:

• A man owns investment property. He employs his sons to do maintenance work on the properties. The sons ask for a swimming pool for the home property. The man pays his sons -- as employees -- a bonus for their work on the investment properties. The bonus is calculated to keep the sons below the income threshold for paying tax. The sons use the bonus to pay for a swimming pool for the home property.
  
• Financial implications: The man has paid a bonus to his employees -- a tax-deductible payment, so the man's tax bill is reduced. The sons' incomes are low enough to ensure that they pay no tax. A household expense -- payment for a home swimming pool -- has been converted to a tax-deductible expense. The man pays less tax.
  

This man puts a lot of effort into minimising the tax that he pays. The more money, time or employees that you have, the more effort you can put into converting expenses into tax-deductible expenses. So the richer you are, the less tax you pay.

The other way to reduce your tax is to reduce your income.

Most people use their income to pay for essential items such as food, shelter, clothing... The very rich -- those who control rich businesses -- don't need an income. The business -- under their control -- will happily provide meals, accommodation, clothing... All essential for a successful business, of course, so all tax-deductible. But it's not income, either, so the very rich have very little taxable income.

Both individuals and businesses take active steps to minimise the tax that they pay. They increase tax-deductible expenses. They reduce taxable income. The bigger the business, the less the tax paid as a percentage of turnover...

Which is all fine, legal, legitimate... Where an individual employee may pay nearly half of their gross earnings in tax, a company (or a rich business owner) may pay far less.

Mining Industry Shades of Truth

There's a full-page ad in The West on 27 May 2010. The ad is from the Minerals Council of Australia. The ad shows various percentages of tax paid. Highlighted figures are, "the actual figure" of 41.3% and "after the 'Super Tax'" 57%.

57% of what?!

That would be 57% of taxable income as declared to the tax office. 57% of income after every effort has been made to minimise taxable income. 57% of an amount which is only a fraction of the annual turnover of mining companies.

If an employee paid tax at that rate it would be 57% of everything. For a business, we really need to know: 57% of what?

Government Shades of Truth

So where did this new "super tax" come from? From the federal government, of course. But why?

Mining companies pay business income tax -- to the federal government. They also pay mining royalties -- to state governments. So mining benefits both state and federal governments.

Mining benefits both state and federal governments? We can't have that! By allowing a state government to earn royalty (tax) money, the federal government is losing power. How can federal control state, when the state is independently wealthy? (No, forget about negotiation and good will. Neither apply. This is a political power play.)

Every business -- including mining -- pays federal taxes. Every business -- including mining -- actively minimises the tax that it pays. Only mining also pays a mining royalty to the state governments. That's why the mining industry is the target of the new tax.

The new tax is not a punishment for the profits of the mining industry. It is a money grab for federal government, it is punishment for paying taxes to state government.

Is it a coincidence that WA is Liberal, that federal is Labor? No. Is it a coincidence that WA has a booming mining industry? No. Is it a coincidence that WA failed to bow down to federal pressure over health "reforms"? Probably not.

The federal government shades the truth, as it hits out with a spiteful new tax. The mining industry shades the truth, as it hits back.

Truth in government? Truth in business? You must be joking.

Independent thinking & independent analysis of your problems by Agamedes Consulting. Support for your thought: email nick leth at gmail dot com

Odds and Sods

Like Licorice, Agamedes gets excited by All Sorts of things.

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Mum with rare disease fears for daughters

The West, 1 May 2010: A woman suffers from a degenerative disease. Lorinda has "presenilin one". Her brain is destroying itself. Soon she will not remember her own family. Soon after, Lorinda will die.

Absolutely miserable.

Lorinda's mother died of the same disease; it's genetic. "I was hoping it wouldn't happen to me," says Lorinda. The disease is genetic, there's possibly an 8% chance that it will be passed on to children.

With this disease hanging over her head -- and the miserable example of her own mother dying of presenilin one -- Lorinda has had three children.

$315m plan for light-rail link

The West, 1 May 2010: A team from the Curtin University Sustainability Policy Institute proposes a "light rail" track for Perth. It's like trams but given a newer, more funky name... Light rail is far better than "trams" which are well known to be old, clunky things which are the life-blood of public transport in Melbourne.

So a team of academic experts -- supported, no doubt, by students who do the actual work -- recommends an "arc" of light rail transport from the University of WA to Canning Bridge. The recommendation comes in a report. The report includes pictures...

I have nothing against light rail for public transport, it seems to be a sensible option. But just look at those pictures:

Each of the three pictures included in the report in The West shows a very modern, streamlined train -- on a single set of rails. How do these trains pass each other?!

The trains travel -- in the report -- at up to 110km/h. The proposed track is 21km long. Non-stop, at just 50 km/hour, a train would take 25 minutes to travel end to end. Does it then turn around and drive back? That would allow one train in a given direction at, at least, once every 50 minutes. With no passing lanes, what else is possible?

I do guess that there will be passing lanes -- that is, stretches where there are two sets of tracks. That doubles the space required for a new light rail system. Which makes it so much harder to find the required space.

Actually, the report itself (I searched the web) does seem to show some double-track sections. But the network will not be quite as simple and compact as shown by the glossy overview in The West.

Funding cuts a blow to ailing river

The West, 22 May 2010: The Swan River Trust's budget is to be cut to $12 million. Is it time to panic? Or to despair? Why bother!

The article has a Margaret van Kleef saying that, "it's a great shame to have their budget cut." Van Kleef also says that she has watched the health of the river deteriorate, in the twenty years in which she has lived by the river.

So we have a Swan River Trust. And we have a steadily deteriorating river.

What purpose does the Swan River Trust serve?

The river is dying. The Trust is failing. Perhaps we should get rid of the Trust entirely.

Let's spend the $12 million on something that actually saves the Swan River.

Independent thinking & independent analysis of your problems by Agamedes Consulting. Support for your thought: email nick leth at gmail dot com

The Slippery Slope, from Euthanasia to Extermination

Agamedes sees logic fly out the door, as letter writers make broad and dubious assumptions.

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Hands up, those people who support euthanasia! Now, hands up those who are opposed?

I was interested to read, that Buddhists support euthanasia (Letters, The West, 26 May 10). Life is precious but it is not sacred. If life is too painful then a Buddhist would support the compassion of euthanasia. That is the view of Ajahn Brahm, a Buddhist abbot.

Compare that to the views of Natalie Matthews, in The West on the day before (Letters, The West, 25 May 10). The Voluntary Euthanasia Bill apparently "stinks of premature death and is a shocking solution to an ageing population."

Matthews' letter uses the "slippery slope" fallacy of logic.

"Slippery slope" logic begins with the acceptance of euthanasia and assumes that actions will follow down the slippery slope of illogic, to end with mass execution of old people. (By the way, my previous sentence is deliberately loaded with an emotional expression... mea culpa:-)

The essence of "slippery slope" is a long chain of logic. For example:

1. Euthanasia is voluntary, the Bill allows for assistance.
   
2. Because of the previous point, some people will ask for assistance to kill themselves.
   
3. Because of the previous point, healthy people will see sick people and encourage the sick people to choose euthanasia.
   
4. Because of the previous point, healthy people will, without consultation, choose euthanasia on behalf of sick people.
   
5. Because of the previous point, healthy people will choose euthanasia on behalf of people who are healthy but who lack the power to defend themselves.
   
6. Because of the previous point, healthy young people will force euthanasia onto weak old people.
   
7. Because of the previous point, young people will use euthanasia laws to legally kill all old people.
   
8. Because of all the previous points, passing the Voluntary Euthanasia Bill will lead inexorably to the "shocking solution" of killing every old person.
   

See how it works? Do you see why it is called a fallacy of logic?

By the logic of those eight points, voluntary euthanasia leads to mass extermination of old people. The logic depends on the correctness of every single step in the chain of logic. If any step at all is false, the chain of logic has failed.

Matthews' letter leaps straight from the Voluntary Euthanasia Bill to "a shocking solution to an ageing population." There is an unstated chain of logic, from the Bill to the "solution". The letter uses as its basis, an unstated slippery slope of logical fallacy.

The letter's chain of logic is assumed, not stated. If the logic is similar to mine, there are eight steps which -- to support the letter -- must all be true. Do you believe that every one of my stated steps of logic is true?

Do you believe that every one of Matthews' unstated steps of logic is true? Do you believe the illogic of Matthews' letter? I don't.

I support euthanasia. I appreciate the Buddhist view, as stated in today's letter.

I can sympathise with people whose moral or religious convictions do not allow them to consider euthanasia as an option. That is their right, to reject euthanasia for themselves.

I have no sympathy at all, with the lack of logic which places a Voluntary Euthanasia Bill as the first step on the slippery slope to mass extermination of unwanted old people.

Independent thinking & independent analysis of your problems by Agamedes Consulting. Support for your thought: email nick leth at gmail dot com

Facebook and Police: a New Market Opportunity

Agamedes is pleased to find truth in his granma's old aphorism: Where there's muck there's brass.

Do you need new -- lateral -- thinking for your own problems? email nick leth at gmail dot com. Need solutions? No worries. Now.

It's just not safe to go anywhere, these days. It's not even safe to go nowhere, if that nowhere has access to the internet... My, my, don't we live in dangerous times!

Dangerous times? Or are times just as dangerous as ever -- with the same dangers but different means of access.

Men have always murdered other men. Not trying to be sexist, I mean that men/women have always murdered men/women. Means, motive and opportunity have always been there to be used and abused. If means and motive already exist, opportunity can be manufactured.

The more subtle murderers used to depend on darkness, disguise and lies to hide their intentions. Now the first two are provided very conveniently, by Facebook. We are used to using lights to overcome darkness. We are wary of people with the more obvious disguises, such as a long, dark, false moustache. Detection of lies can be more difficult; not every liar has obviously shifty eyes.

And now we have Facebook, with its electronic darkness, built-in disguise and inability to indicate lies.

Facebook is an area of "darkness". There is no light in Facebook, no light to show what murderer lurks in the shadows. Every aspect of a Facebook inhabitant is a disguise: height, weight, sex, intentions, all are self-described and -- as far as anyone can tell -- as false as any other disguise. The spoken word, with its supporting intonation and expression, is converted to flat, blank text. An ideal medium for lies.

In the murky dark of Facebook, murderers may lay in wait. Police will also stalk the darkness, hoping to prevent or at least punish crime. Just another dark and dangerous part of our civilised environment.

So what is the problem? Police have patrols in the real world, they have patrols in Facebook. There are witnesses in Facebook, as in the more real world. Facebook has its equivalent to the CCTV of the city streets... But the Facebook CCTV is not available to police.

According to The West, "State and Federal police say Facebook staff have been unwilling to provide police with intelligence." (Police blast Facebook, 26 May 10) Aside from the obvious opening -- to state that police should have their own intelligence...

Police need advice on gaining information from Facebook staff. An AFP (Australian Federal Police) assistant commissioner and an AFP head of high-tech crime operations have flown to Washington to "discuss their concerns". Don't they read the daily newspaper? Don't they understand Facebook?!

An assistant commissioner, flying to discuss concerns, is a waste of air fare. Adding a high-tech expert is also not worth the expense. Here's what will really work:

Offer to pay Facebook for all required information.

Facebook have announced that personal information is for sale. Companies buy the information and use it to target potential customers. Police could buy the information and use it to target potential criminals. It's a commercial world, with everything for sale. Offer enough money and buy whatever is needed.

Think Facebook... Think commercial... Think profit motive... Think purchasing power.

Simple, isn't it? Police just need to think.

I'm happy to do it for them. Free... this time :-)

Independent thinking & independent analysis of your problems by Agamedes Consulting. Support for your thought: email nick leth at gmail dot com

So Hard to get a Good Plumber

It's time, thinks Agamedes, to get that dripping tap fixed.

Do you need new -- lateral -- thinking for your own problems? email nick leth at gmail dot com. Need solutions? No worries. Now.

We have a dripping tap in the garden. Not so much a drip, more a continuous flow. The tap won't stop, so we leave the end of the hose lying in the garden. May as well be watering something while it's leaking.

We use a lot of water. So much, that we get complimentary comments on every water bill. You know, the extra little note that says, You are using twice as much water as anyone else in your street? Makes us feel proud and pleased to be noticed.

Still, with the cost of water set to double, we may need to reduce our use of water. The last thing we want to do is to pay so much that Water Corp can afford more of those smug little ads, the ones that show how much water they have sold. They pretend that they are encouraging us to use less water! Hah! All they're doing is bragging, letting us know that water sales are up so Water Corp can afford those pretty little ads.

We support lawn and natives out the front. The lawn turns brown in summer because we follow the water conservation guidelines for automatic reticulation. Out the back, our vegie patch spent years as a dry and dusty sand-bowl... No self-respecting vegie will survive on the allowed water. Still, we've had some success since starting grey water re-use. Not that anyone is willing to eat the vegetables which have thrived on recycled wash water...

Our garden tap has leaked for years. There's a tiny spot of green where we drop the end of the hose in the garden. With the cost of water set to double, we can no longer afford to support that spot of green.

Time to call in a plumber.

The leaky plumber

The last plumber we hired was to fix an overflow problem with the solar hot water system. There's a pipe runs down the side of the house, with various pieces of mystic plumbing paraphernalia near the end. Whatever the paraphernalia is, it allows a steady drip of water to escape down the pipe.

We sit a pot plant under the drip. When the pot plant died of over-watering, we called a plumber. He was obviously an expert; his plumber's certificate was very colourful (though the ink was still a bit damp).

No worries, said the young expert, It just needs a stronger pressure [garble plumber-tech garble].

Okay, we said, Go to it.

The plumber replaced the pressure [garble plumber-tech garble], took our youngest child as down payment and departed. Next day I called the plumber's employer.

Why, I asked, Does our pipe leak faster than ever?

This time we were visited by an older plumber. He did not show us his Plumber's Certificate of Meritorious Overcharging. He simply did... something... and fixed the new problem. We agreed that we could now live with the original, somewhat slower, leak.

I'm not sure if burnt hands apply to plumbing. Nevertheless, we decided to search for a different firm of plumbers.

Piping in expertise

We called West Atlas Plumbers.

Can you fix a leaking tap? we asked.

No worries, they replied. Do you have a nearby lake, river or ocean? We'll divert all the leakage there, just while we check your site for dodgy plugs. Then we'll pump in a few tonnes of mud, perhaps with some under-strength concrete, just to see what happens. Call in a few international experts, just to look good, we won't follow their advice. Shouldn't take long, just a few weeks... You can move out of your house, can't you?

We'll get back to you, we lied.

We called Mexico Gulf Oil & Gas Plumbing.

It's not our fault, said the operator. We may have installed the pipes but the tap came from China. And the plumber was a subbie... What's that? We didn't install the tap? Why didn't you say so! Of course we can fix it! We've never done work like that before, how hard can it be? Is there any water pressure? You see, we only have some cling film to stop the water flow while we work on the tap... Should be enough, I mean, we use cling film in all sorts of other places... No, I know we've never seen your pipes before... But we've never worked on water pipes anywhere, so what's the difference? Anyway, we'll sub-contract all the work so that you can sue someone else if it all goes wrong...

We couldn't interrupt, they weren't listening, so we hung up the phone. Time to try someone else.

Hello, Mia Resort Sewage & Treatment Systems... Can we help? Yes, certainly, we fix leaking taps. Sewage & Treatment? Well, yes, that's our name. We're changing our business focus. There's a bit of a stink at the moment, you know, people catching nasty diseases from dying dolphins, that sort of thing. No, not our fault, of course not! No-one can find the leak, so how can it be our fault? Anyway, we'll fix your dolphin problem, if you have one -- get rid of the lot of them.

After polite thank-yous, we said goodbye.

Perhaps we'll live with our leaking tap. Not that we have anything against plumbers. We just don't want any of them near our property.

Independent thinking & independent analysis of your problems by Agamedes Consulting. Support for your thought: email nick leth at gmail dot com

Odds & Sods

So many highlights in today's paper! Agamedes barely knows where to start ranting.

Do you need new -- lateral -- thinking for your own problems? email nick leth at gmail dot com. Need solutions? No worries. Now.

So much nonsense in The West Australian today (18 May 2010)! And wow! there's even something nice! Let's rave on...

Healthy eating

Inside Cover has a quick sneer at the Department of Agriculture and Food. I can't help but sympathise.

The big boss at Ag & Food sent an email to all staff: Eat healthy! he wrote. Meanwhile, out with the sporting try-hards...

I'm a regular competitor with the little-known sport of orienteering. Each week, throughout the winter season, we have an event in the bush -- with a cake stall to make it all worthwhile. Association members bring a cake, competitors buy a slice of cake, money raised goes to help the sport.

We -- members -- are now being encouraged to bring a healthy cake. Wholemeal flour. Less sugar. More fruit. Not just fruit in cakes -- real fruit, for sale. Sheesh!

We've just walked, jogged, run for two, five, six or more kilometres through the bush. Burnt off perhaps ten servings of Dinky Donuts. And -- for the sake of unneeded sponsorship from a government agency with nanny-like power urges -- we are being asked to bake and sell wholemeal sugar-free lentil cakes.

Sheesh!

Model TV show looks good

It's a very nice photo with the advertorial for Australia's Next Top Model. Three pretty girls from WA, a story in the WA daily newspaper, all very nice. Nice text, too.

The professional fashion photographer has comments on each of the WA contestants:

• "A serious contender... perfect proportions..." Looks as though she has a chance of winning.
  
• "A good eye for creating a look... achieve exciting angles..." Willing and flexible enough to do as the photographer asks.
  
• "Working hard early... develop her skills..." Tries hard.
  

Isn't that nice! Here's a positive statement about every single one of the contestants... Pick the ones from [select your own state] and you have a nice, positive story with local content.

Well done, that PR person!

Unqualified teachers

Then there's the report that the "New [physics] course [is] 'too hard' for teachers".

Igor Bray of Curtin university says that the proposed course content is good. But school physics teachers are not qualified to teach that level of technical physics content. Well durr!

Teachers are selected from amongst those who want to work with children. People who look forward to the challenge of passing knowledge to young people. People whose ambitions lie with being nurturing and supportive rather than fame and discovery.

Then teachers are thrown to the wolves.

Teachers are told to teach the unteachable. To manage classes of thirty, where perhaps one or two want to learn and at least one or two are psychopathic misfits who should not be allowed unaccompanied in public -- so they are relegated to the social welfare confines of the local school.

When students fight rather than learn, teachers are blamed. When students struggle to learn, do their best but are still only average, they are measured against private school students who are filtered for success... and the teachers who drag the dregs up to match the average -- are blamed for not teaching any better. Then the teachers collapse for a well-earned break, or just break under enormous pressure -- and are attacked by letters to the paper.

Teachers have lost all public status. Their role is to baby-sit, to be social workers, medical assistants and jailers. If you understood physics -- and could get a job as a physicist -- would you become a teacher? No way!

Raise the status of teachers. Let them teach. Change the role of schools back to education. Define the role as "teaching" rather than "social work". Perhaps then we will get teachers who are able to teach physics.

Independent thinking & independent analysis of your problems by Agamedes Consulting. Support for your thought: email nick leth at gmail dot com

Stepping up with a Suitcase

Have you ever carried a heavy suitcase up stairs? Agamedes has -- and did not enjoy it.

Do you need new -- lateral -- thinking for your own problems? email nick leth at gmail dot com. Need solutions? No worries. Now.

Have you ever carried a suitcase up stairs? It's difficult, isn't it!

First, there's the weight of the suitcase. That's bad enough. You arm stretches, you shoulder feels as though it is about to pop out. That's just on the level ground...

It's even worse going up stairs.

There's the weight of the suitcase. Your arm stretches. Your shoulder feels as though it's about to pop out. Plus... that awful thump, thump, thump... as the case hits each step on the way up.

Step, thump. Step, thump. Step, thump.
It's heavy and now it's thumping. You just wish that every airport, hotel, b&b, village, bus station, railway... had escalators and lifts. But they don't.

If you think about it -- and Agamedes has thought about it -- it's that leading corner of the suitcase that causes the thump, thump, thump. Or, going down stairs, it's the trailing edge that hits every single stair on the way down... Thump. Thump. Thump.

Yes, you could lift the case clear of each step. Lift, strain, step. Lift, strain, groan, step. Lift, stretch, step, rest. Groan, lift, drop, curse, lift, step.

Or... You could remove the corner that thumps:

Okay, it's still heavy, I can't help you with that. (Other than advise you to pack less, next time.)

But the thump, thump, thump is gone. Yes, your arm still feels as though it's about to drop off.

But -- with the Agamedes Corner Cut [(c) & pat. poss. pend.] -- carrying a case up and down stairs is no worse than carrying it along the flat. No better, perhaps. But certainly no worse.

Suitcase up the stairs? No worries.

Independent thinking & independent analysis of your problems by Agamedes Consulting. Support for your thought: email nick leth at gmail dot com

Subi Oval Naming Saga

Agamedes sees a means of maintaining the familiar name, with benefits all round.

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We are about to lose Subiaco Oval.

Not the place, not yet. Just the name.

After many, many years of knowing that Subi Oval is the home of football in WA, corporate greed is about to win the day. So says The West Australian reporter Mark Duffield, on 15 May 2010 (Subi Oval name rights deal close).

Well, Duffield says that the naming rights deal is close to being finalised. He does not mention corporate greed.

Back in 2003, Subiaco City Council blocked the move to rename the oval. The council occasionally objects to the crowds which flood Subi when the oval is in use. Even more, they objected to the thought of crowds descending on "Crazy Johns Oval"... all the crowd problems with none of the city name recognition.

Now, however, it seems likely that football will happen at "Patersons Stadium", which will still be located in Subiaco. There's no room for history, nor for sentimentality -- not when WAFC (WA Football Commission) sees the chance for a quick quid. (Or a quick buck, for younger readers.)

History be damned, says WAFC, We can get $800,000 a year for selling out that history.

Subiaco city need not be beaten

What is it that WAFC want? They want more money. $800,000 a year, reportedly.

What position can City of Subiaco play? Well... they own the ground. And rent it to WAFC. So here's the simple answer:

City of Subiaco raise the rent on the ground which contains the football Oval. Raise the rent by, say, $800,000 per year.

We can't afford that! sob the WAFC.

Oh dear, says the council. But wait, perhaps we can help...

And the City of Subiaco will offer to buy the naming rights for the sports field which will, now, be named "Subiaco Oval". Named for a major ($800K per year) sponsor.

Subiaco Oval retains its name. City of Subiaco continues to gain recognition for the sports ground within that city. Subiaco shopkeepers continue to benefit from a well-publicised city name, plus those regular hordes of big-spending football fans. Parking and traffic problems are no worse than they were.

Better yet, WAFC gets a major sponsor. They even avoid the cost of changing signage, letterheads, all references to the name of the oval.

Sure, WAFC have to pay increased rent for the land. But... well... that could happen anyway.

Independent thinking & independent analysis of your problems by Agamedes Consulting. Support for your thought: email nick leth at gmail dot com

Graft and Greed and your Local Council

The state newspaper believes that local councils are greedy, grasping and money-hungry -- if Agamedes can believe the Editorial.

Do you need new -- lateral -- thinking for your own problems? email nick leth at gmail dot com. Need solutions? No worries. Now.

Local councils are considering getting and using their own speed cameras. Or, as The West sees it, local councils want "to get a share of the revenue from speeding motorists" (Editorial, 14 May 2010). Here's the apparent chain of logic:

• Police own and use 26 Multanovas.
  
• These 26 Multanovas "can only be spread so far."
  
• There is "public doubt" as to whether Multanovas are placed to reduce road hazard or to raise revenue.
  
• This perceived "public doubt" is enough to convince The West that Police are, indeed, guilty as charged.
  
• Local councils are, apparently, also concerned more with raising revenue than with road safety. Guilty, because The West believes that it could be so.
  
• "Local government has already turned fines for illegal parking into rivers of gold." Local government is at fault, rather that people who park illegally.
  
• Similarly -- according to the "logic" of The West -- drivers who speed are perfectly within their rights; fining drivers for speeding is a sure sign of greed by Police.
  
• Councils fining drivers for speeding would also demonstrate greed and corruption.
  
• It is better to allow thousands of drivers to break the speed limit, than to fine one driver for speeding on a "busy suburban street".
  
• A council which can afford to buy a Multanova will "cash in on the proceeds". Worse yet, poorer councils will "miss out".
  
• By now The West has convinced itself that councils will only use Multanovas to raise revenue. Road safety will not even be considered.
  
• The police minister -- the minister responsible for the Police who already use Multanovas for revenue raising -- must "act decisively now and stamp it [councils using their own Multanovas] out".
  

Whatever happened to the capitalist ethos of competition?!

The logical fallacies

The West begins with an assumption: Police use Multanovas to raise revenue rather than to reduce speeding. No evidence is presented. The claim of "public doubt" is quickly turned into a statement that, it is so. No proof, no evidence. A baseless assumption.

Next fallacy: Each council which can afford a Multanova will use it wholly and solely for raising revenue. Again, no proof. Even less evidence, since no council has yet used a Multanova.

Related fallacies: Breaking the speed limit is okay as long as it is not near "residential areas or schools". Speeding in other areas does not cause any safety issues. When drivers do break the speed limit they are not at fault; the fault lies with the Police or council which operates the Multanova which records the motorist's illegal driving.

Skip to the final fallacy: The drongos who wrote the Editorial in The West actually knew what they were drivelling on about.

A simple solution

There are already laws in place to allow councils to use Multanovas. Here's how:

• Buy a Multanova. Or get Police to buy it for you (good luck!).
  
• Set it up wherever you like, but make sure that you know the speed limit at that point.
  
• Use the Multanova to record speeding drivers. They have broken the law. You are a witness and you have evidence -- the Multanova record.
  
• Send the Multanova record to the Police. Let the Police know that you have witnessed a crime, and here is the evidence; that's your right as a citizen.
  
• Leave it to the Police to use your statement and evidence to track down and fine the speeders; that's their job.
  

There is a clear separation between noting the crime and collecting the speeding fine revenue. There is no financial benefit to the council; even The West could not accuse them of revenue raising. Police are simply following up information from the public, to catch criminals.

Simple, if you think about it.

Independent thinking & independent analysis of your problems by Agamedes Consulting. Support for your thought: email nick leth at gmail dot com

Big-Picture Broadband

The government is pushing for a national broadband network. Agamedes wonders what happened to good sense and testing the market.

Do you need new -- lateral -- thinking for your own problems? email nick leth at gmail dot com. Need solutions? No worries. Now.

The federal government has just spent $25 million on a study into the implementation of a national broadband network. Just think, $25 million spent -- and not a new wire in place. Isn't it nice, that the government has so much spare money to throw around...

A few days ago a newspaper columnist suggested, that the new broadband could be tested in a pilot study. Roll out a bit of network, see who is really interested. That's a good idea -- and the idea cost far less that $25 million!

Who wants it?

Some people seem to think that a new super-fast broadband network is a good idea. Mostly, this seems to be people who want to sell something via the new network. Wouldn't it be nice if they could go to market with zero upfront capital cost for the distribution network... Wouldn't it be nice -- for them.

It's like wanting to sell ice to Inuits -- and asking the government to create a new airline with a very large freezer on every plane.

Meanwhile, there are a lot of people who do not want a new network. A lot of these people may be those who already get all the network speed that they require. A lot more are those who don't use any network at all, fast nor slow. And a few of the dissenters will be like me: they know that the network will offer new services -- with the sole aim being, to convince us to buy even more.

Still, it may be that a super-fast network is, really, a good thing.

The latest study has reduced the cost estimate from $43 billion to a mere $26 billion. Well, okay, that's assuming that private enterprise will kick in another $17 billion of its own money. Oh, and less people will be able to access this cheaper version of the new service. (According to "Broadband viable without Telstra: study", The West, 7 May 10.)

Just a quick thought: Perhaps I should write a $25 million report saying that the network could be in place for only $20 billion. Even cheaper! Of course my network would only be accessible to the people of Perth. But look how cheap it is... at the planning stage.

Let's make a practical plan

Perhaps we could do a practical test -- a market test -- to see what this new network would really cost. And to see if it is really needed. So:

1. Call for expressions of interest, from both buyers and sellers. That is, from both homes and businesses which want to get access to the network and businesses which have something to sell via the network.
   
2. Select an area which has at least one seller and as many buyers as possible.
   
3. For that area, estimate the total cost of installation to at least the seller and all the potential buyers in the area. Just for that area. It's a restricted market test.
   
4. Now you know the (estimated) cost, calculate the sale cost. That is, how much would the seller need to pay, how much would each buyer need to pay, to make the network viable.
   
5. Go back the every buyer and seller in the selected area -- and to all other potential buyers and sellers in that area -- with the cost estimates. How many are still / now willing to buy in.
   
6. If there are enough willing customers -- install a super-fast network in the selected area. Track all of the actual costs. (If there are not enough willing customers to even pretend to make the network feasible -- that's a fair indication that you should stop right here.)
   
7. Count the costs of running the network. Measure the income, number of customers, anything else of relevance.
   
8. Let it all run for a year. (By the way, if the project cost so far is less that $25 million -- demand money back from the group which did the $25 million "implementation study".)
   
9. Count the actual costs, actual revenue, actual problems and benefits. Has it all been worth doing?
   
10. If it was worth doing in that one area -- extend the super-fast network to another area. And another... and another...
    
11. If it was not worth doing in the first area: Look at and solve the problems, or give it more time to catch on... or drop the national idea because it is not feasible.
    

What's wrong with this plan?

It seems to be a sensible approach, to begin with a restricted market test. Invest a relatively small amount of money, test the market response. Why not do it this way?

Why would the government want to start with a small test?

Being in government is all about getting elected again. In order to get elected again, the government must provide noticeable benefits to the majority of voters. How many voters will benefit if a restricted market test is successful? Not very many!

How many voters will benefit if a full national network is rolled out? Well... we don't actually know... because no-one really knows if anyone actually wants the claimed benefits. So far, all we have is people who want to sell, and an unmeasured market of people who may, possibly, if it's heavily advertised, want to buy.

Nevertheless...

A national super-fast network will provide benefits to every voter. That is, if there are any benefits to be had. Even better: a national network will take several years to implement -- well past the next election, in fact. So the benefits -- or otherwise -- will not be measured for several years.

Meanwhile, the government will brag about the money spent. They will be able to claim massive future benefits -- which no-one will be able to dispute. They will be seen to be doing great things -- spending a very large amount of government money. All the time, claiming that benefits will flow...

Spending big money -- making friends with businesses, especially those building the network. Promising huge benefits -- with no proof at all. And several years to wait -- possibly through several elections -- before promises can be seen to fail.

Restricted market test? Practical, cost controlled, sensible. National all-at-once implementation? Politicking at its worst.

Independent thinking & independent analysis of your problems by Agamedes Consulting. Support for your thought: email nick leth at gmail dot com

What Drugs should be Legal?

Agamedes sees an opportunity to test the validity of current drug -- and anti-drug -- laws.

Do you need new -- lateral -- thinking for your own problems? email nick leth at gmail dot com. Need solutions? No worries. Now.

Apparently, drug use is rampant amongst jail inmates. Drugs, we are told, are easily smuggled into Albany Regional Prison. Is this a problem -- or an opportunity?

From what I read, there are plenty of people who use drugs, licit and illicit. There seem to be plenty of people who believe that some currently illicit drugs should be made licit. And yes, there are people who want currently licit drugs to be made illicit.

We are told, in The West Australian of 29 April 2010 ("Drug use rife in jails, Albany inquest told"), that drugs are easily smuggled into Albany Regional Prison. Drugs are already "rife", prevention has apparently failed, perhaps we are ready for a new approach.

Pilot test: drugs in Albany prison

Let's make all drugs legal within Albany Regional Prison.

Think of the savings: no need to search visitors, no need to search prisoners. And it's a "closed" environment: a perfect place to test the impact of drug legalisation.

Where will we get the drugs? Well, why waste all the drugs that are confiscated by police? Send it all to Albany prison! It could be issued free, or at least at a low price. After all, the purchase cost was very low.

What will happen?

Death, violence, debauchery, disease... according to some. Happiness, personal well-being, relief, happy times all round... according to some.

What will really happen? Who knows! But perhaps it would be nice -- or even worthwhile -- to find out.

Independent thinking & independent analysis of your problems by Agamedes Consulting. Support for your thought: email nick leth at gmail dot com

Flu Jab Warnings

Kill the messenger? Agamedes notes a variation: attack the person who failed to send the messenger.

Do you need new -- lateral -- thinking for your own problems? email nick leth at gmail dot com. Need solutions? No worries. Now.

Flu jabs, sick kids, a bad combination. No-one likes to read about sick kids. When flu vaccines are alleged to make kids sick, plenty of people get upset.

"We need to know when the Government found out and when it responded, and whether the information that was needed was there in the first place," says shadow health minister Roger Cook. (From "Calls to examine 'late' flu jab alert", The West, 29 Apr 2010.)

"The Minister needs to tell Parliament why the system seemed to fail mums and dads," he continues. Note the use of "mums and dads" rather than "parents"? So much more emotional, don't you think? So much more tugging at the heart strings. No mention, though, of failing the children... after all, they're not old enough to vote.

"We may need to have a formal enquiry..."

Cook is not alone in this view. As the flu jab issues were surfacing, there were general calls to find out what had gone wrong. Generally tied to demands that someone needed to be punished. For failing the mums and dads.

Is this "disaster recovery"?

Something has gone wrong. There is a disaster happening or, possibly, about to happen. But how do you know?

Several years ago I was in charge of a Disaster Recovery Planning project. If a "disaster" happened, the disaster recovery plans would be pulled out, and followed. One small problem:

We were planning for recovery of contracted services. If there were a disaster, contacted services would be thrown into turmoil. Costs would skyrocket. Key performance indicators (KPIs) would not be met -- we would all be busy recovering from the disaster. KPIs not met would result, under contract terms, in payment being reduced.

If, for example, an office were flooded... contract service would stop until the floodwaters receded. Then there would be a period of below-contract KPIs, while equipment was replaced. (That's a deliberate example. An office was, in fact, flooded. All systems were recovered very quickly; all the disaster recovery manuals remained closed and on the shelves.)

So, if there were a disaster, service delivery staff need to have it confirmed, so that KPIs can be adjusted. Service delivery staff want an early declaration of disaster. People paying for the services may want a delayed declaration of a disaster so they can pay less, due to missed KPIs.

For my project I asked, who would declare that this series of problems was, in fact, a disaster? I never did get an answer...

When dodgy flu jabs are (possibly) causing kids to get sick -- who will declare that this is a disaster?

Doctors? Health department? Nurses? Parents? Politicians? We need to be more specific: Who will declare a flu jab disaster: Which doctor? Which official within the health department? Which particular parent? Which politician? I would guess... that no particular person has been given responsibility -- or authority -- to declare a flu jab disaster.

If you don't have responsibility -- who do you tell? If you don't have authority -- what do you do? Remember: a false call and it's your job on the line, your reputation which will be ruined, your career which will be forever dogged by that one bad decision.

So, are we surprised that there is no-one to send the messenger?

Perhaps it's a process problem?

Australian Nursing Federation State secretary Mark Olson "wanted an inquiry into why authorities were slow to react". Yep, another call for an inquiry. We all want to examine past failures and allocate blame.

What's the point?

Surely what we want to do, is to make sure that it doesn't happen again!

There are a whole lot of management buzzwords, catch-phrases and motherhood statements about "quality processes". It is worth remembering: If there is a problem, fix the process... processes cause problems, not people.

Fix the process.

We had a problem, possibly a disaster. The process failed, because flu jabs continued -- apparently -- despite indications that they were causing problems. So improve the process.

Let the past be a warning: we now know that flu jabs may be less than perfect, we now know that warning signs may be missed, or warnings ignored. Now design a process that will work...

How will the process work?

It's all very well to say, we need a new process. An essential part of process development is, to set the process requirements. Consider each of these:

• Who will be responsible for identifying adverse reactions?
  
• Adverse reactions to what? Just children's flu jabs? All children's injections? Adult injections? The list is endless... Identify the essential items to be watched -- for this process development project.
  
• Do we want this project team to list some of the other contenders for a similar disaster identification process?
  
• Who will be responsible for gathering and analysing the data which may indicate an impending disaster?
  
• Who will be responsible for declaring, publicly, yes, this is a disaster?
  
• Who will need to be informed? Doctors? Parents? Nurses? Politicians? Parents? Someone else? Everyone else?
  
• Who will be responsible for developing this disaster-identification process?
  

That's a bare beginning. Now we can get serious:

• Appoint a project manager, identify team members. But that's not enough.
  
• Who must be consulted? Who must be informed? Who must ensure -- or agree -- that the final process is actually effective? This is standard "project management". Processes don't just appear, they must be designed. And that is a "project".
  
• Now... the project team can start its work. Including:
  
• Define what data will be collected. Number of injections? Number of adverse reactions, grouped by type?
  
• Decide, at what point is there a potential disaster. One adverse reaction? One percent of injections give an adverse reaction? Only adverse reactions which result in hospitalisation? Children who get sick within a week of an injection? a day? a month? ... Is there an absolute measure to indicate a problem? Probably not, so...
  
• Define the response to be taken at various levels of risk. Email to doctors at the very first sign of possible problems? Public announcements when suspicions are raised? Absolute ban on injections when... well, when?
  
• Name the person (or position) who will have the information, who will have responsibility to make the decision, who will have authority to take the action.
  

That's just off the top of my head. A good process is not simple to design. It is simply essential.

Don't waste time allocating blame. Shoot the messenger and you will never see another messenger. Develop an effective process, now. Learn from the past. Improve the quality of response, for the future.

Improve the process and you will gain benefits, well into the future.

Independent thinking & independent analysis of your problems by Agamedes Consulting. Support for your thought: email nick leth at gmail dot com

The West and the Worst, Online

Agamedes wonders why a daily newspaper wastes its money putting its own banner onto a standard online search engine.

Do you need new -- lateral -- thinking for your own problems? email nick leth at gmail dot com. Need solutions? No worries. Now.

Every so often, I go to The West Australian's website, to find or to follow up an interesting story. Why do I bother! Why would anyone bother to go the "The West's" website?! Just try it...

It is not "thewest" .com.au

In the address bar I type "thewest.com.au" -- just as I read it in the hardcopy newspaper. There's no such site. I am instantly transferred to, "http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/". What's that?! It's "Yahoo!7news" with "thewest.com.au" added to the top left corner of the screen. Oh well, let's pretend that the website is, in fact, somehow related to the newspaper...

Oh! look! a "search the west" option! I want to get some detailed information on drive trails which were selected by Stephen Scourfield, travel editor of The West, as being some of his favourite drives. The article ends with, "See detailed drive trails guide at thewest.com.au". So, I type "detailed drive trails guide" and press "search".

Search Results: No results found! That's not my exclamation mark. That's the displayed results of my search.

Try again.

The article headline is, "Six spectacular drives around WA", so I search for "six spectacular drives around WA".

Search Results: No results found!

Try yet again.

Search for "stephen scourfield". After all, he (allegedly) wrote the article. Two articles found. One is five days old, the other 19. Neither is relevant...

Really, the articles are from "5 days 19 hours 29 minutes ago" and "19 days 19 hours 27 minutes ago". Wow! "19 days 19 hours 27 minutes ago"! That's really useful, isn't it! The West Australian is a daily newspaper. News in a daily newspaper is either "today", or "old". Once news becomes "old", I don't care to carbon-date it to the exact minute... It's just old, yesterday's, last week's news... no longer current... You know, "old" news.

Oh well, time to try something different.

Forget trying to "search"

There's a tab labeled "travel". Sure, the article was in the "news" section of the paper. But I decide to buck the odds and click "travel".

Got it!

All sorts of stories -- travel related, mostly -- dated from February to today (May). Under the heading of "WA" is a photo plus teaser for a story on Aboriginal art, from four days ago. Okay, it's filed under "travel" because the artists live at Ringer Soak, 170km from Halls Creek. I've seen the turnoff: you think you're driving through the middle of nowhere, Ringer Soak is down an even rougher road, heading even further out.

But look! To the right of the big -- old news -- article is "Great drives of WA"! Dated today! Is this what I'm looking for?!?

Oh. Bugger. No.

The online article "Great drives of WA" -- dated today -- is not the same as "Six spectacular drives around WA" from this morning's paper. The online article does list ten drives -- none of which match this morning's article. Each drive name is a link to a separate article about that drive. Those articles are descriptive, I followed one, it had no practical information on the drive. The article did have a link to yet another site -- the front page of a commercial site -- which had no immediate information on the drive which started the trail of links.

Very lazy journalism

On The West's website, every "Drive" article was dated as today (4 May). Every article was originally published in a special liftout, on 6 March 2010. What an absolute rip-off! I give up trying to find a "detailed drive trails guide" for the drives.

Close the newspaper's website. It is a Yahoo site, with no useful relationship to the newspaper.

The West and thewest.com.au -- unrelated. Claims of more info online? Rubbish.

What a waste of effort.

Independent thinking & independent analysis of your problems by Agamedes Consulting. Support for your thought: email nick leth at gmail dot com