All Animals are Equal, but... only in your dreams

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Unexciting factoid: “The median ATAR for students who used one stage 2 course in their admission rank was 68” (Bethany Hiatt reporting in The West, 4 Jan 2011). This -- according to Hiatt’s headline -- is evidence that Easy courses shatter uni hopes.

Let’s have a look at the logic:

• A student may study for the regular exam which is tailored for university entrance. Or they may choose to study an easier course with an easier exam.
  
• Students studying the regular course were given a 15-point bonus. Which means, at a guess, that the regular course was considered to be 15% tougher than the easier course. In other words, a student who could achieve a 60% result in the regular course would be expected to achieve 75% (ie 60+15) in the easier course. So the 15-point “bonus” is, in fact, an equaliser.
  
• With the equaliser, students can study either course -- regular or easier -- and expect to get the same final percent.
  

Except -- and here’s where Hiatt comes in -- students choosing to study the easier course are getting final marks that are lower than students studying the regular course.

Here’s a sample exam:

• Regular exam: “Discuss the meaning of life, with examples drawn from at least three major civilisations.” Student R does the exam, scores 62 out of 100. With the 15-point equaliser, student R gains 77% towards university admission.
  
• Easier exam: “Write your name clearly at the top of the page.” Student E does the exam, makes some errors of placement, spelling and clarity, scores 65 out of 100. There is no easier-course equaliser, so student E gains 65% towards university admission.
  

If student R had done the easier exam, they would have scored 77%, because the easier exam is... well... easier. Easier by about 15%.

So where has the easier course shattered uni hopes? Only in the minds of reporters like Hiatt, who have to make some sort of a story out of rather unexciting data.

Unexciting?

Well, yes. Here is the data:

Students choose to do an easier course. They still hope to get into uni. Despite doing the easier course, their results are lower than students who chose to do the regular course.

If they had done the regular course, they would have done even worse. These students have demonstrated that they have lower ability -- in the measure that is accepted for university entrance -- they have lower ability than the students who studied the regular course.

These students -- with demonstrated lower ability -- will be lower on the list of people who may be accepted into university.

Lower results in the uni entrance exams equals lower on the list for uni entrance.

A rather unexciting result, really.

Glad I’m not a reporter having to make an attention-grabbing headline out of that unexciting data...

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