Is Change an Enemy of Success?

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This post looks at an area where I am not an expert. Now there's a surprise! Instead, I begin with a quote from an expert:

France gets smoked out in the euro crisis

Somehow France has managed to get itself grouped along with Germany as one of the strong euro nations. But it runs a bigger budget deficit than Italy. It has chronic unemployment and little growth. Crucially, it has the greatest resistance to reform. The merest suggestion of extending working hours, or retirement ages, or reforming public services, prompts massive demonstrations.

(part of light-hearted predictions for 2011 by Matthew Lynn, The West, 29 Dec 2010)

Here is the problem: Lynn is taking accepted dogma and treating it as an absolute truth. Instead, he should be looking at the actual evidence.

What is the accepted dogma? It is that reform -- or change -- is essential for success.

Now look at the (admittedly very limited!) evidence presented in Lynn's own article: "Crucially, it [France] has the greatest resistance to reform."

So we have two stated facts: (1) France resists reform, and (2) France is considered to be one of the strong euro nations.

Are these two facts related? Does "resistance to reform" help create a "strong euro nation"? Based on this limited evidence: Yes... Or, at the very least... Resistance to reform is not an absolute guarantee of economic failure.

Despite the accepted dogma.

So, here's a good idea...

Western Australia is said to be conservative, said to resist change... said to resist "reform".

We now have some small but definite evidence that change is not essential to economic strength. Western Australia, in fact, already has a very strong economy. So what do we need to change?

There are calls for extended trading hours... faster population growth... privatisation of public services... higher population densities... But why?! To improve our economy -- supposedly.

Let's just stop and think: What are the actual expected benefits of these forced changes? How are we presently suffering? Will these proposed changes fix the problems that we actually have? Let's see some evidence -- or at least, a valid chain of logic!

What do we -- the people of Western Australia -- really want, for Western Australia? Agree on that. And then decide what "reforms" we want to implement.

Independent thinking & independent analysis of your problems by Agamedes Consulting. Support for your thought: email nick leth at gmail dot com