Economic Mayhem at the Battle of the Bulge

Tighten our belts, do our best, ride it out -- and the problem will go away.

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Traditionally, population formed a pyramid by age. There were more young than middle-aged, more middle-aged than old. The middle-aged supported the old, perhaps indirectly via taxes. There were enough middle-aged -- active income earners -- to fully support the smaller number of non-earning, sit-in-the-sun older people.

Funnily enough, no-one ever questioned the fact that the middle-aged were also supporting the even larger number of non-earning, play-in-the-sun young people...

Now we have a different shape to worry about. Thanks to the "baby boom" after World War II, there is a bulge in the population pyramid. With a self-satisfied smirk, statisticians have identified a new shape: the population coffin.

See where the shoulders fit in the coffin? That's where the baby-boomers are swelling the population in their own age group. See how close the baby-boomers are to becoming "old"? That's where the problem lies.

After years and years of supporting our economy by working, earning and spending, the baby-boomers are getting old. Very soon, they will be old and sick. Then the next generation -- the current crop of "young" -- will have to support the aged and infirm baby-boomers.

After all these years of work and success and growth and income -- you are thinking -- the government will have a huge stash of cash set aside, to deal with this very problem. After all -- you may be thinking -- we have seen this problem coming, since a year or two after the original boom. It has been a matter for public concern and discussion for decades.

Unfortunately we are dealing with government. And government plans only as far ahead as the next election.

Oh no! What can we do?!

Let's just wait a few years. And the problem will solve itself.

How will the problem solve itself?

First, the cost of medical care will reduce. That's a natural effect of development, invention, mass production and competition.

Take another look at that coffin shape. Notice that it gets narrower below the baby-boomer level? There are less post-baby-boomers. And there are even less very young people.

If we can maintain that shape -- we will be saved!

Less young people, so less young people for the post-boomers to support. Money saved. Money which can be redirected to the aging baby-boomers.

And then, in twenty years -- or in thirty... or in fifty -- all of the baby-boomers will be dead. (Except for the very few, very rich. They will be not-quite-dead, in the deep freeze. With luck, they will have left enough money to pay for their ever-increasing power bills. That's all they'll need.)

So, given enough time, the population bulge will have died away.

Unless we try something really stupid, like breeding or importing people for another bulge to follow the baby-boomer bulge. But that would simply create more problems as we are forced to deal with the next population bulge.

Surely we would not be that stupid.

Independent thinking & independent analysis of your problems by Agamedes Consulting. Support for your thought: email nick leth at gmail dot com